Texas -7 Vs Arkansas

I’ll give it to Coach Cal: that was an impressive win against his former team on the road, but let’s not get it twisted: Arkansas is still a bottom-feeder in the SEC. Arkansas has been especially unimpressive on the road in conference play, failing to cover the spread in their 3 games before their win at Kentucky (83-65 vs Mizzou, 78-74 vs LSU, 76-52 vs Tennessee) Arkansas shot 52% from three in their win vs. Kentucky when they only average 33.5% from behind the line so there should be a reality check in store from them on the road. Texas is strong at home and are coming off a win on the road vs LSU where they scored as many points in the second half as LSU did all game. KenPom has Texas ranked at 28 making them much stronger than their record would suggest.

Rutgers +8 Vs Illinois

I’m not really sure if Dylan Harper will play today, I still like them at this number if he doesn’t, and I really love them if he does play. Illinois looked like they could be the best team in the Big Ten but have fallen off a little bit. Kasparas has been in a slump, shooting 4/26 from three in his last 5 games, and slumps usually aren’t broken on the road. This Illinois defense is good, but it doesn’t force turnovers at a high rate. Ace Bailey, by himself, can keep Rutgers in this game, as his scoring ability is clearly above this level of basketball. If Harper plays some of the weight will be taken off Baileys shoulders but other guys like Jamichael Davis have stepped up in his absence. 8 just seems like too much of an overcorrection on Harpers health status at home against a struggling team for me not to take.

Nets -5 Vs Wizards

I am not a fan of betting on the NBA, but this just seems so free to me. There is no way the Washington Wizards will cover 3 straight on the road. There’s definitely no chance they win 3 straight on the road, and if I was super rich, I’d throw heavy on the Net’s ML. Especially after the Kuzma and Valaciunas trade, there’s just no chance this historically bad Wizards team covers.

2/4/24 recap

Iowa + 7 ❌

Went into the half-tied-up and couldn’t cover 7.

Wisconsin -9 ✅