Vandy ML Vs Ole Miss -110

It’s been a bit of a rough stretch for the Rebles since their impressive blowout win over Kentucky. Since that game, they barely beat LSU, almost choked the South Carolina game, and then lost to Mississippi State at home. Now they have to play Vandy at home, where the Commodores excel, having a 12-2 record at home. Vandy is also 14-1 on the ML when they are the favorite (they are a slight 1.5-point favorite today). This is also a nice spot for Vandy to get back on track at home after getting destroyed by Kentucky last game. I always question if Ole Miss can create offense on the road and they seem to live and die by Sean Pedullas ability to create when things get tough.

UNC Asheville -2.5 Vs Longwood

Revenge spot for the Bulldogs, who lost to the Lancers on the road earlier this year. In that game, UNC Asheville was out-rebounded out of the game, allowing 21 OREB to their only 4. This is strange because the Bullodogs grade out as a better rebounding team by a decent amount. They could still lose the rebounding battle this go around, but I’d be shocked if it’s by this much again. The Bulldogs also committed 9 more fouls than the Lancers, so I expect that to not be as bad being at home this time. They are also coming off an embarrassing loss to Radford and will look to get right here at home. Both these teams grade out very similar on KenPom but UNC Asheville has the 3rd best “luck rating” in the country and i’m not really sure if I should fade that or ride that (or even take it seriously)

GCU -10.5 VS CBU

WACTION!

Another spot where the better team lost the first go around on the road and got to play them again at home. The GCU stadium is so sick, and their fans care, so it’s one of the better mid-major home-court advantages. GCU lost by 14 as 6-point favorites earlier this month vs the Lancers (No, not the Longwood Lancers, the California Baptist Lancers). GCU is a much better team than CBU, with a +6.49 net rating compared to CBUs +0.66. GCU plays at a much higher tempo than CBU, ranking 15th in tempo, while CBU is 263rd, and I like GCU to lay at their own pace at home.

Florida -9 @ LSU (POD)

Florida is Playing without Alex Condon and Sam Alexis in this game, but I kind of don’t really care. Florida is a much better team than LSU in pretty much every aspect of the game of basketball. When betting on the road team, I like to make sure they have a good “kill shot” margin. A kill shot is a 10-0 run, and Florida has gone on 25 of them this year and has only allowed 7. While LSU has allowed 14 of them, which is tied for the most in the SEC. Florida has a 7-3 ATS on the road and is 17-5 ATS as the favorite. So this Gator team respects coin and I feel very comfortable putting my money on them to win by double digits here