Lipscomb -7 @ Austin Peay

3 unit play.

I’m feeling really square today! The longer I’ve been sports betting, the less and less I’ve bought into fading the public and “trap lines.” All lines make sense once you dig into them a little bit, and it all becomes a matter of finding good spots. I view this line as an overcorrection for how “good” Austin Peay is at home. According to my new glorious king Evan Miya (https://evanmiya.com/?homepage) Austin Peay is 27th in home rank in the country, meaning they have the 27th highest difference between their analytics at home than away. My initial reaction to seeing this was “gulp!” but then I realized if their home court advantage was to ever mean less than usual its this game. First off its only an hour drive from Nashville to Clarksville and everyone knows it doesn’t become a real roadtrip until the travel time is over 3 hours one way. Lipscomb is also by far and away the best team in the Asun while Austin Peay is middle of the pack at best. Lipscomb has a 5.6 relative rating (how many points a team is projected to outscore and average D1 team in a 100 possession game.) Making them one of only two teams in the conference with a positive mark. Austin Peay has a relative rating of -8.3 which is below average in the conference. In their first meeting Lipscomb won by 28 scoring nearly as many points in the second half alone as Austin Peay scored all game. Will Lipscomb shoot 60% from the field and 52% from 3 again? Probably not. Lipscombs best player Jacob Ognacevic dropped his second season high 31 in that last game only missing one shot. So this is also a good matchup for their best player.