SDSU -2.5 Vs New Mexico (don’t tail)

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First off, I will be taking SDSU -2.5 and laying the juice on their ml at -140 because I attend this school and I’m not a terrorist. However, I will not advise anyone to tail this. I see a lot of people on our spread, but I just don’t think it’s that good of a bet. No chance Magoon plays and I don’t think people are taking that loss seriously enough. Nobody on our team can replicate the gravity he has as a rim defender, and certainly can’t replicate his shot-blocking ability. I’m also just a bit of a New Mexico/Donovan Dent dick rider and I can’t view us in the same tier as this New Mexico team. New Mexico has a higher D rate than us and are twice as good as us in terms of offensive rating. They’ve gone on the most kill shots in the conference while also not giving up a lot equating to having the best margin in the conference. If we get off to a slow start (which we always fucking do) I never trust our offense to comeback and I’m scared our defense wont be able to keep us in it.

Illinois -10.5 Vs Iowa

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Boy, oh boy, Illinois has never needed a get-right game more than they need it right now. Illinois is not a bad team, but they are on a 3 game losing streak, and Duke just made them look like a JV team on a neutral site. According to my new bible (https://evanmiya.com/?team_ratings) Illinois plays really bad against good teams but looks incredible against bad teams. Iowa is a clear big ten bottom feeder and is the only team in the conference with a negative D rate on EvanMiya.com. Illinois should be able to score at will against the Hawkeyes but they should also have a lot of second chance point opportunities as they are projected to dominate the boards battle.

Colorado State -12 @ Air force

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You’re telling me I get to fade this god awful Air Force team off a win?! Sign me right up! Air force is so bad. they have a -10.4 relative rating while CSU has a pretty impressive 11.6 relative rating. Air Force also allows the most 10-0 runs in the mountain west with 24 and have only gone on 7 themselves. CSU won by 21 in the first matchup outscoring Air Force by 20 in the second half. CSU did this while only shooting 28% from three which should go up at least a little bit. This is only a 2 and half long car ride for the rams (its not a real road trip until its 3 hours btw) and the skill gap is just so large here that I kind of dont care that CSU is on the road.