Packers -3.5 2U

Due to the senile and racist old man who’s pictured above, blocking the entrance of a newly desegregated school, the Green Bay Packers now have the best pass rusher in football and are a legitimate threat to the Eagles in the NFC. This is the most hope that Green Bay has had in the post-Rodgers era, and the crowd at Lambeau Field will reflect that tonight. I really can’t picture myself ever backing the Commanders in this spot. The Lions got 1.5 points on the road in a similar spot, and that proved to be a gift of a line. The commanders only get two more points than the lions did at 3.5. Based off what I saw from the packers defense last sunday I think I would still be backing the packers if line was as high as 5.5.

As high as I am on the new look Packers, I’m also extremely low on the Commanders for the 2025 season. I view their 2024 run as more of a perfect storm rather than a sign of what’s to come. The commanders converted a jaw-dropping 87% of their 4th downs last year, which will almost certainly regress towards the league-wide mean this year. I also think the loss of Sam Cosmi isn’t talked about nearly enough and is going to hinder what they want to do in the run game. And as dumb as it sounds I think there is some truth to the sophomore slump from QBs. We just saw it with CJ storud where when young qbs put more on film at the nfl level opposing defensive coordinators are able to adjust much easier. I think this game will be the start of the commanders fall back to earth this season.

Prop

Matthew Golden ATTD +290

I was always in the camp that Golden was the Packers’ true WR1 all offseason. +290 seems like a good price for him to get his 1st career touchdown against a questionable Commanders secondary.